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The next phase of the pandemic will be nuanced as restrictions are adjusted in a desire to unwind them and in response to fresh outbreaks caused in result. This complex picture will be made more difficult by the influence of travellers newly mobile between countries following different strategies. A major uncertainty is whether there will be a second destructive wave, as there often is in viral pandemics, perhaps triggered by a surge of infection in southern regions that have been comparitively unscathed so far.

Consequently, different decision makers may wish to examine the data in ways more suited to their own needs and situations, comparing the data differently with emphasis on particular countries not covered here.

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Analysis tool

I’ve developed a spreadsheet tool that can be downloaded here, that will be updated with current data and allow personal analyses to be conducted.

Data set: 935 data rows. Latest update: Tuesday 21-Apr-20

Data

  • The tool contains data based solely on WHO fatality data, typically published daily
  • Dates correspond to the date of reporting, which is the day after the period it relates to
  • Fields:
    • Date – Date of the data item
    • PandemicDay – Overall day count, with Day One = 1 January, 2020
    • ElspsedDays – Day count for each country after passing 0.1 fatalities per million
    • Daily Fatalities – Reported fatalities for that day
    • Total-Fatalities – Cumulative total fatalities up to that day
    • Total-FatalitiesPM – Cumulative total fatalities up to that day adjusted per million for that country
    • Avg-Daily-Fatalities – 7day moving average daily fatalities
    • Avg-Daily-FatalitiesPM – 7day moving average daily fatalities adjusted per million for that country

Pivot charts

Two example pivot charts have been included, and these can be adjusted by the use of the Field List function in Excel. Different data series can be selected, and Countries can be selected and de-selected.

Other analyses than these can be conducted on the data, of course.

Updates

Updated data will be published in the same spreadsheet tool, and the current data imported into a customised version if this is preferred. The data can be cut and pasted across, using Paste Values, or the tab may be copied across and analysis redirected. There may be other methods, too.

Countries

I have included most of the major countries with advanced infection rates or otherwise of interest. Please get in touch if you would like this list extended to cover others of particular interest.

Disclaimer

This tool is made available as it, with all faults and errors, and with no claims or assurances as to its contents, accuracy or appropriateness for any use.

 

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