Research and Estimation of Fatality
RatesEstimating
fatality rates is far from easy because the
quality and style of reporting varies
greatly from country to country. This page
brings together some of the main items of
research work, and shows the unfolding
picture.
The graphic on the right shows when the
estimates were made, and how they compare.
The individual reports are listed below with
links to the underlying documents These
are not my estimates, I am merely recording
the estimates of those in the professional
community..
Research and estimates
of Fatality Rates: |
-
Estimate of Swline Flu death rate in
Scotland reduced - 3 September 2009
"...it is now estimated that up to 0.1%
of people who become ill may die, down
from the previous figure of 0.35%."
-
PANDEMIC INFLUENZA A(H1N1)V IN NEW
ZEALAND - 27 August 2009
"Using the estimated denominator
population of 323,400 symptomatic cases,
this suggests a CFR of
0.005%
(95% CI: 0.003–0.011). Interestingly,
this estimate is in the range found for
seasonal influenza in the population
under the age of 65 years"
-
Novel H1N1 Mortality Rate: Pitfalls in
Calculation - 20 Aug 2009
B. Martin, MD
"The hospitalization ratio for April 15
to July 24 was 0.114. As of August 20,
there have been 522 deaths among 7,982
hospitalizations, for an in-hospital
death ratio of 0.65. The case-fatality
ratio in the United States is therefore
0.114 X 0.65, or 0.0075 (and the
mortality rate is
0.75%)."
-
Research published by the French
Institute for Public Health Surveillance
- 20 August, 2009
"The overall 'computed CFR' (number of
reported deaths per number of reported
cases as of 16 July 2009) was
0.6%"
-
Statement made by Malaysian Health
Minister - 14 August, 2009
"The death rate among those infected is
0.1%
and this is not above the fatality rate
in other countries"
-
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND TRANSMISSIBILITY
ANALYSIS OF INFLUENZA A(H1N1)V IN Peru
- 13 August 2009
"As of 17 July 2009, a total of 1,771
cases, involving eight deaths, have been
confirmed. This yields a crude case
fatality ratio of
0.33 %"
-
Statement by Singapore Health Minister
on Influenza A (H1N1) - 5 August,
2009
"The data from North America suggested a
case fatality rate of
0.37%"
-
2009 flu pandemic table - 31 July
2009
A table containing the figures from the
WHO Influenza A Situation Updates issued
in July 2009 roughly three times a week,
and, since 15 July, figures from ECDC
(fatalities 1,152, cases 183,590) case
fatality ratio=
0.63%
-
ECDC Planning Assumptions for the First
Wave of Pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 in Europe
- 29 July, 2009
"Case fatality ratio assumotion of
0.1% to 0.2%
(cannot exclude up to 0.35%) of clinical
cases"
-
A/H1N1 influenza update - British
Medical Journal - 23 July 2009
"England’s chief medical officer, Liam
Donaldson, said that the NHS should
prepare for 0.1-0.35% of infected people
dying"
-
Research:
A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF INFLUENZA
A(H1N1)V VIRUS INFECTION IN THAILAND - 15 July, 2009
"A
total of 690 confirmed cases with
disease onset on or before 18 June gave
rise to four deaths (as of 15 July)
yielding a CFR of
0.58%!
-
CDC Director's Update Brief, Novel
2009-H1N1 - 17 Jul 2009
This
"internal use only" document quotes
specific fatality numbers and CFR for
five age groups that range from 0.17% to
5.34%, and calculates out at a CFR of
0.73%
for the population as a whole.
-
Assessing the severity of the novel
influenza A/H1N1 pandemic -
14
July, 2009 - British Medical Journal "At first sight, the data seem to imply
that this new virus is relatively mild,
with case fatality ratios around
0.5%,
similar to the upper range of that seen
for seasonal influenza"
-
Panndemic Potential of a Strain of
Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings -
19 June 2009
"Our estimates suggest that 23,000
(range 6000 to 32,000) individuals had
been infected in Mexico by late April,
giving an estimated case fatality ratio
(CFR) of 0.4%
(range: 0.3 to 1.8%) based on confirmed
and suspected deaths reported to that
time."
-
WHO Situation Update, Novel Influenza
A(H1N1) - 16 June 2009
"Mexico 6241 laboratory confirmed cases,
108 deaths (CFR 1.3%), United States
17,855 laboratory confirmed cases, 45
deaths (CFR 0.3%), Canada 2978 confirmed
human cases, 4 deaths (CFR 0.1%), Chile
1694 cases, 2 deaths (CFR 0.1%),
Australia 1823 cases, no death, Overall
case fatality rate
0.5%"
-
ECDC Influenza A(H1N1)v Risk Assessment
- 12 June, 2009
"From the United States' experience
about 7% of the confirmed cases have
been hospitalised and the case fatality
ratio is 0.2%"
One
other research note was published on
Eurosurveillance on 2 July 2009 - "THE
EMERGING INFLUENZA PANDEMIC:
ESTIMATING THE CASE FATALITY RATIO".
I have not included this here
because it aimed to model a notional
"developed country" with assumptions
partially derived from seasonal flu
B, and produced four results by
different methods with a range of
150:1. However, it is worth noting
that the results published were all
far below any of the estimates of
fatality ratio published elsewhere. |
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